@Article{MarengoARACVTSF:2010:InScTh,
               author = "Marengo, Jose A and Ambrizzi, Tercio and Rocha, Rosmeri P. da and 
                         Alves, Lincoln M and Cuadra, Santiago V and Valverde, Maria C. and 
                         Torres, Roger R. and Santos, Daniel C. and Ferraz, Simone E. T.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first 
                         century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate 
                         models",
              journal = "Climate Dynamics",
                 year = "2010",
               volume = "35",
               number = "6 Special Supplement",
                pages = "1089 - 1113",
                month = "0930-7575",
             keywords = "Regional climate models, Climate change, Rainfall, Temperature, 
                         SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE, MESOSCALE ETA-MODEL, BAYESIAN STATISTICS, 
                         IPCC SIMULATIONS, SOLAR-RADIATION, NEURAL-NETWORKS, 
                         HIGH-RESOLUTION, SEASONAL CYCLE, MEAN STATE, PART I.",
             abstract = "Regional climate change projections for the last half of the 
                         twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part 
                         of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America 
                         do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta 
                         CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global 
                         model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present 
                         climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission 
                         scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean 
                         circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air 
                         temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of 
                         changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by 
                         the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more 
                         southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a 
                         pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is 
                         projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a 
                         weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and 
                         HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that 
                         regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern 
                         Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while 
                         the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may 
                         experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes 
                         may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 
                         scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A 
                         degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in 
                         winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. 
                         In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 
                         and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the 
                         same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with 
                         changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are 
                         comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes 
                         reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future 
                         climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for 
                         some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern 
                         Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for 
                         other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West 
                         Central and southeastern Brazil.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s00382-009-0721-6",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0721-6",
                 issn = "0930-7575",
             language = "en",
        urlaccessdate = "2024, May 03"
}